Friday, December 20, 2013

THE REMATCH: Ultimate Dynasty Bowl II Preview

Last year the Ultimate Dynasty Bowl started on a Saturday, December 22nd and now it will take place on Sunday, December 22nd, exactly one year later. This however is not where the similarities end, not by a long shot. As you all know by now Ultimate Dynasty Bowl II not only falls on the same date as last year's title game, but features the exact same teams as last season. That's right, it's a rematch. This is unprecedented, I've been playing fantasy since 2005 and yeah I've seen some teams repeat or make the title game two years in a row, but I have never seen the exact same two teams play in the championship game in two consecutive seasons it's just unreal. Let's take a quick look at this from a mathematical perspective, every year there are sixty-six different possible championship match ups, so every year any particular match up of teams has about a 1.5% chance of being the Ultimate Dynasty Bowl match up, if those odds weren't low enough, the odds of having the same match up two years in a row are something like 1 in 4,356 or about .023%. Now that everyone has an understanding of just how special this is, lets dive in and see if we should expect the Sharks to repeat or the Lions to get it done this time and capture their first title. 

How they got here: Miami Sharks - A preseason favorite ranked 1B in the opening power rankings, stayed at or near the top of the power rankings and league all year long setting the new regular season scoring record. They lost Julio in week 5, but were still able to get off to a 6-1 start. It was from there, that deals had to be made shipping the injured Julio and later AJG off the team in attempts to improve for a playoff run. After starting 6-1, the Sharks finished 3-4 and actually had their playoff spot in jeopardy as late as week 13, but the Sharks confidence never wavered. After defeating Kory Adams in the final week of the season the Sharks finished 9-5 and snagged the 2 seed and a date against big time rival and co-preseason favorite CLO Collins in the divisional round. In the early going in the 1 o'clock games it looked like the Sharks repeat run may be coming to an end thanks to a -5 defense play and CLO's team looking strong, that's when Jamaal Charles busted on to the scene seemingly scoring at will and posting 51 points and along with Stacy giving the Sharks a substantial cushion heading into MNF, while it was still a possibility for CLO to come back a signature Staff-Mega performance was not to be and the Sharks punched their ticket to a second consecutive Ultimate Dynasty Bowl. 

How they got here: Carolina Lions - Coming into 2013 no one expected the Lions to compete for a playoff spot, let alone be a championship contender (as reflected by their #10 slot in the power rankings), but after a season filled with highs and lows the Lions once again find themselves one win away from greatness. Looking at their 2013 season the Lions managed to start out 4-2 with two big wins over Tots, a win over Super Manning, and a win over CLO and were turning heads. With an upcoming stretch of Purists, DK, and Gio it looked as if they were destined for a 7-2 start, but they face planted dropping the first two games of that set falling to 4-4. It was at this point the Lions looked to be building for the future dealing Foster for a bevy of picks, this lasted about a couple hours before the owner Luke Zente said screw it he was going for it all right now and dealt essentially (7) 1st round picks in various years to acquire Chiefs D and Knowshon Moreno. This sparked the Lions to a 5-1 finish including a four game win streak to end the regular season and an insane victory in a win-and-in game in week 14 vs Super Mannings. They were then matched up against the 1 seed Scott's Tots and proceeded to defeat them for the 3rd time this season winning 111-95 with an explosive performance from DJAX. The Lions for the 2nd consecutive year toppled a heavy favorite in the divisional round to make it back to the big game. 

#4 Carolina Lions 9-5 VS #2 Miami Sharks 9-5 
All Time H2H Regular Season (2-0)
All Time H2H Post Season (1-0)

Miami Sharks QB: Jay Cutler - In Trestman's offense going up against an Eagle's pass D that just got lit up by Matt Cassel, Cutler makes for a superb QB1 starter this week. 

Carolina Lions QB: Tony Romo - Not fantastic in his previous start against Washington, but Washington's pass D and overall team is horrible, Romo has some upside here if this game can turn into a shootout.

Edge: QB Jay Cutler, Miami Sharks
Miami Sharks HB: Jamaal Charles - After lighting up the Raiders for 51, he gets another plus match up with the Colts and should find plenty of room to run. 
Carolina Lions HB: Knowshon Moreno - Although Ball has been eating into his carries more and more, Moreno is still a rock solid HB1 and arguably the leader of the Carolina Lions. 

Edge: HB Jamaal Charles, Miami Sharks
Miami Sharks HB: Zac Stacy - Have a semi tough match up going against Tampa Bay but consistently getting 20+ touches makes Zac Stacy a solid start. 

Carolina Lions HB: Rashad Jennings - Ran very well against the Chiefs, shouldn't have much trouble with the Chargers run D. 

Edge: HB Rashad Jennings, Carolina Lions


Miami Sharks FLEX: Fred Jackson - Ran well last week against the Jags but still a committee back not worth getting overly excited about. A pretty good flex play but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't considering Hunter.

Carolina Lions FLEX: Stevan Ridley - Probably the best option on the Lions' roster for a flex and he's a great runner it all depends on how much Belicheck lets him play. 

Edge: FLEX Fred Jackson, Miami Sharks 
Miami Sharks WR: Josh Gordon - On fire as of late, and completely capable of going off for 200 yards any Sunday especially against this depleted Jets' secondary.

Carolina Lions WR: Desean Jackson - Really came to play last week and gets a dream match up with the Bears coming up, he's a locked in WR1. 
Edge: WR Josh Gordon, Miami Sharks

Miami Sharks WR: Keenan Allen - Going up against a putrid Raiders D, Keenan Allen should continue his ROY pace. 

Carolina Lions WR: Eric Decker - Capable of just going off or finishing a game with 40 yards, I think we'll see somewhere in between on Sunday. 

Edge: WR Eric Decker, Carolina Lions
Miami Sharks TE: Jimmy Graham - The number one tight end matches up against a team that struggles defending the tight end and gave up two TD's to him last time they met. 

Carolina Lions TE: Heath Miller - Sturdy if unexciting tight end who could have a nice day in a potential shootout against Green Bay.

Edge: TE Jimmy Graham, Miami Sharks
Miami Sharks D: Cleveland Browns - Matching up against the Jets, the Browns have a high floor and a high ceiling

Carolina Lions D: Kansas City Chiefs - The number one D in fantasy, not an ideal match up but no way you can sit them. 

Edge: D Cleveland Browns, Miami Sharks
Miami Sharks K: Nick Novak - There will be some scoring in the Chargers/Raiders game and hopefully a few field goal opportunities for Novak and the Chargers 

Carolina Lions K: Phil Dawson - Premier option at kicker

Edge: K Phil Dawson, Carolina Lions

The Pick: In a hard fought match up and one that could come down to Sunday Night give me the Miami Sharks to finish off the repeat 122-99. 

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